040111 - Are the Professionals ready to move Wilmar UP the trend?

If you have been following my posts on wilmar, you would have knew that I have been following this
stock closely since mid december. If you have missed any of the post, the links as below.

http://volume-price-spread-for-metastock.blogspot.com/2010/12/241210-wilmar-has-fallen-19-pecent-is.html

http://volume-price-spread-for-metastock.blogspot.com/2010/12/171210-is-wilmar-ready-to-stage.html

The same question again, Is Wilmar ready to go up north from today's massive sell down?
Look at the price bar today, the closed is not above 50% of its day range but towards the day's low.
Although there is a sign of  buying back at the end but this does not constitute a "buy order" yet.
If you think that it is cheaper now, think twice as it may get cheapest in weeks ahead.

Look at the wilmar chart today, if a trader has been trying to buy into the huge down day on each
occasion or averaging down.

Let see his portfolio performance.
                                     Date            Activity            Lot          Price
                                11/11/10           BUY                  1             $6.30
                                22/12/10           BUY                  1             $5.62
                                04/01/11           BUY                  1             $5.50
 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL                                                                       3              $17.42
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 AVERAGE/LOT                                                        1             $5.80
LOSS/LOT (TODAY CLOSED - AVERAGE)                       -$0.30

This loss will continue to amplify if the stock price continues to fall day after day. Paper loss is REAL loss, don't be childish to think it is not. It is your real money in negative returns. Worse of all, funds are
held up too long waiting for the stock to turn back up again and some never able to survive again with
suspension or delisting issue.

So what will be the tell-tale sign that the stock may have bottom inorder to have a good entry and enjoy the joy ride soon after purchase...Check my blogsite for more information.

What to look out for this week?

Basically we need to see that the today's low is not violated for the next few sessions, what I would like to
see for the next three sessions is to look out for test base bar or reduced selling pressure bar with very low volume, negative bar  which closes within the body of today's bar. In Japanese candlestick, it should be classified as bullish harami. This will provide me with the tell-tale sign that the sellers are no longer motivated to sell down further and I would expect higher price from then. Another positive indication will be a bottom reversal bar when price opens lower than today's low and closes near the day high with enormous volume and this climatic bar actually covers at least 50% of the today's bar.

Another interesting aspect of my system is that when the trend change occurs, the price bar will turn
Green and the Trend Cluster below volume bar will turn Green too. So when price bar and trend
cluster are positive with other positive indicators alert, then I will consider to take the trade without fear.

In my opinion, I feel that Wilmar is likely to head lower towards the mid-term support at $5.25. Failure to
hold up, next will be the lower channel line (bear logo) around $5.00 mark. Till then, I have to relook into
the chart again.

As I am planning to look for long trade, until now I have not found the right timing to ride the upwave and
is fortunate to be staying sideway all these while when the stock continues to plunge.


For more information on how I prepare a stock chart for trading each time?

Youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DhWgOq3BWHs

               http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nlNL8hCxq3E

               http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nHsj_xSAhI&feature=related

Blogsite: http://volume-price-spread-for-metastock.blogspot.com/

Trading is a team sport!

241210 - Wilmar Has Fallen 19 Pecent, Is This The Right Time Now?

Hi Traders

After my analysis on 171210, explaining how the chart should be traded and why I didnt take a trade
at the end as Wilmar was not ready to move up. More confirmation would be needed to command
a trade.

Today, five days after my analysis, Wilmar plunged further down and I was lucky that I did the right
analysis not to take trade on 171210 where the single positive indicator "Demand Coming In" was
triggered but not substantial enough to make a trade.

So is Wilmar ready to move up from here. Well, the reply is the same again, we need more
confirmation again. Today's Wilmar triggered "Reduced Selling Pressure" on a  half-day trading
session due to Pre-Season Half - Day Trading.

So what will consitute to a potential rebounce from the level. Well, I would like to see that the
following things to happen next..

1) Price continue to move slowly up with less volume and maintain above recent low of $5.60
with possibility of base testing again, this may tell me that there are no sellers to push price below
the recent's low.

2) A climatic action that open lower than the recent's low but with wider price spread up and huge
volume, this will tell me that the professionals are eager to buy into the low price position.

3) Price bar becomes GREEN and the Trend cluster below the Volume bar turns GREEN too. This is a clear sign that a new trend has taken place.

Without the above, no trade will be done for sure.

 Just be patience like a Wolf behind the bushes and waiting patiently for the Herd of Sheeps to move nearer to your advantage and strike with precision.

171210 - Is Wilmar ready to stage a rebounce?

Hi Traders

Price fell from point 1 due to increased selling activity from the professionals, at point 2,
we witnessed that the selling had decreased and price started to move higher, this activity
of supporting the price from falling deeper was clearly identified by my propietary indicators,
"Markup (Bullish)" and followed by another "Test Base" to confirm that the selling had been
absorbed by the professionals, when there was no supply in the market, price would slowly
find its way up and any demand can easily moved price higher.  With "Go Long1, Blue
Diamond" indicator appearing after a few sessions later (mid october), it was clear that the
trend was indeed heading for higher ground.

So how would I know when to take profits?

Let's discuss further, after the "Go Long1" was triggered, price began to fall due to profits
taking as price had touched the long term support line( Orange Line). This pullback was well
supported well by the 13 days Moving Average (Black) and price rebounced and broke
the orange support line (A) , which was  the resistance line.

Price continued to head higher toward point 3 but with weakness. This was indicated
by the "End of Up Market" and "Lack of Demand" denoting that the trend may had peaked.
This was the time where one should decide to take profits and stay sideline.
Further weaknesses was confirmed by the "Supply Coming In" the next day that brought
the price back to the support level (B). Continuous weakness caused the price to break the
support level $6.18 in mid November.

With the last defense (C) support line set at $5.90, I was eager to see if this final support would
fail to hold the price again as I am planning for a Long Trade for possible sign of trend reversal. 
My stock scanner picked in "Demand Coming In" indicator for the end of day session, 17th Dec.
Since this is the first sign of positive indicator, I decided to probe more into the price & volume
action. Just by drawing channel lines and moving averages, I would be able to estimate the
probable support or resistance level in the near term.

As can see from point 4, "Demand Coming In" indicator is triggered with nice price range and
average volume. A few sessions back, "Reduced Selling Pressure & Test Base' indicators
appeared numerous times as the price moved towards point 4.
On close observation, we can see that the 17th December Day's Low (point 4) coincided with
similar low point held strongly in last September (point 2), so is the stock ready to stage an
upmove from now.

Is this the correct timing to go long now?

Frankly speaking, it is still too early to tell. One single day of positive activity may not mean that
the price is going to move up from here. So what clues am I looking for next?

As you can see that the price bar is colored Red and the trend ribbon below the volume bar is
also colored Red. If the trend is ready to move higher, I would want both the price bar and trend
ribbon to turn Green, giving me a firm confirmation that the trend has indeed turns positive.
 If a surprise "Go Long1,Blue Diamond" does appear from now onwards, I can firmly convince
that the trend has turned up and provide good rewards to risks returns.

As you can see, I do not use any standard charting package tools such as MACD,RSI,Stochastics Oscillators, RMI, ADX and more...Reason: Everyone is using the same standard indicators with standard
settings. An astute trader or your trainer can easily tweet the indicator to give much earlier entry or exit
therefore where is your competitive advantage in this ruthless game of money.

Learn how to read the price and volume activity (bar by bar analysis) as both are the real-time indicators of all. Others are just derivatives and may give contridicting triggers at times when combine together.

If it is so easy to use standard indicators to trade for a living, we would see many successful traders among us, many would have Fired their Bosses and stay at home.

 Trading financial instruments are not so simple as you think.Spend more time to educate yourself instead
 and don't rush to trade as the Markets will be there even after we're gone.

Until then, cheers..

Happy Profitable Trading Ahead!