Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Learn and Excel Together, Great Questions by a Reader.

Thanks bro for your questions, hope I have answered your questions thoroughly.
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SGtrader says:

The folloing replies represent my opinion and does not represent the masses
or constitue to any buy or sell advice from me. Solely for educational purpose.
Don't be too serious.

We are solely responsible for our trading activity in the market, when in doubt,
please consult your financial advisor for more assistance.

Cheers

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What is usually the signal for a buy?

1. When selling pressure decreased, low supply on sell side more on buy side.

Price near support or @ support range.
When selling pressure decreases, usually the sellers have already sold most of their inventories.
Price will continue to go lower due to momentum but soon price will start to move sideway to wait
for the next event to come. The sideway movement  can last as long as the market decides.
Until the next major events occur, it will continue to stay low. Base break out usually happens much
earlier then analysts coverage or news. This is becoz in most cases, many others related to the listed
company would have already knew the good news ahead and plan their purchases much earlier awaiting for
 the news to break out to the public. This is usually detected by the unusual high transaction activities
when the stock is in sideway market but still within the trading range. This is sign of early accumulation
by the known persons.  Take note: (This is my wild assumption and may not be true as Insider trading is illegal.
Read at your own risk.)
My system seeks to reveal this type of activity as it evolves…So that I can always position myself together
with them.Impt thing is to always watch your cutloss level no matter what happens…We are dealing with
 probability in all cases.
2. Good fundermentals
I don’t use fundamental analysis..I have seemed many lousy stocks become valuable after
massive speculation by pros..I also see cash rich company kana punished like nothing, there
is no logic at all. E.g Wilmar International
Is wilmar fundamental weak after getting into property biz? No, still cash rich.
So why the stock is beaten down so much, due to fear and greed.
This sell down is seemed by me as a manipulated activities to cause many average traders to
unload their stocksto the pros who are actually accumulating but their activities are trying to
show that they are dumping.
Pros are known to play both sides of the market. They dump in the morning to create fear
and buy back cheaper at mkt close.
If you follow my blog, you will see what  I see..
http://www.sharejunction.com/sharejunction/listMessage.htm?topicId=9386&searchString=&msgbdName=Others&topicTitle=Are the Professionals ready to move
Wilmar UP?

3. How do you really tell whether a stock is poised for a jump, by your expert
indicator.
If you know how to measure market expansion and contraction and compare to the stock that you are
analyzing, you will be able to see that the stock is now outperforming or underperforming the index.
I choose to pick stocks that outperform STI and it must be in stage 2 meaning I pick stock that is going
higher and higher and I love to buy higher price from the sellers. After all, this is the only way for price to
go higher if you understand bid and ask.

Please correct me if im wrong, i only know the tip of the iceberg.

Usually i look at the normal MACD, RSI, STO. I feel those are really not trustable

and its really only the surface and lagging.
I had used those common indicators for 3yrs and I also joined TASS society and took the market
technican exam. It’s take expert to know how to combine those Indicators and many will not reveal
much in their bootcamp. Using those indicators, you must be good at spotting divergence and
convergence.
Many times, you will be left indecisive when the indicators are floating in the air..e.g. when macd
is widely apart from the signal line. The call for sell is to wait for both MACD and signal lines to cross
 over. But by then, most profits are gone or worse if it goes under your buy price.
I have tested my system again all past indicators that I use… The most important of all is that those
 indicators cant ride a trend too long. Cross over now and then giving the signal to buy or sell. meaning
 you are going to make your brokerage super-rich by trading excessively.
This system of mine help me to ride a trend up to a max of 3max which is long term to me. It will filter
short term noises and I am above to achieve very good % of returns. Just as example. If you use daily
chart to trade and how many times will the price be cutting the 13MA.
What if I used 13MA in weekly chart to trade, how far can the price goes before triggering a sell signal?
 My system looks into daily chart vulnerability and smoothen it with weekly chart.

I read "Way of the turtle" and i feel its a fantastic book where traders learnt to trade.
They used trend trading and also bought in around when close>20d ma.
I also compare with turtle style of trading. This system is much closer to what I am using now  
but turtle triggers too much transaction in a uptrend.
For a retail trader, getting to trade in and out of the market too frequently is going to kill your capital.
My system will help me ride a trend until weakness is found.
See below chart on how I usually trade a stock. As below, I bought at channel low where two bullish
signals were picked by my combine scanner (reduced
Selling pressure + uptrend) then I sold when the price started to come into the channel, I could had
sold on the 1st weakness indicator “Trap upmove”
But decided to give the stock some more room to move. At the end, it still fell and I exited with 39% returns in a short period.

If you compare my chart above with turtle indicator applied below, check the turtle indicators on the chart.
From my original chart, you can see the the price bars were green until the day I sold whereas for the turtle below, You could see some sell stop signal and red price bar.. This may cause worry to traders who could have exited due to profit protect too early before the trend becomes mature.

It would be appreciative if you would share some of your long learnt knowledge.

Thanks,
Cheers.