Sunday, April 3, 2011

Combining Stage Analysis, SGtrader's Channel Trading & Expert Indicators - High Probability of Success.


     Stock Market goes through four stages of cycle, stage 1 - 4 with each stage plays an 
     important part to the type of trading strategy to use and take advantage of the stage. 
     This teaching is made popular by the author of " Secrets for Profiting from Bull and Bear" 
     by Stan Weinsteins.
    
     When I first came across this book, it was doubtful with the title which began with "Secrets". 
     Many authors like to use this strong word to attact readers to pickup their books and hopefully 
     buy them. 
 
    Nevertheless, I picked up the book, scanned the front and back cover for more information 
    and then the contents. As I read the book, I immediately knew that this could be the book
    that could assist me to break down the stock movement into stages and if I could use the
    right strategy for each stage, I should be ok.
    So I bought the book and treated it like a bible, I read and read each time when I had time 
    until I understood the author's intention.

    I started to employ stage analysis to the charts in 2003 and was able to detect each stage 
    as the Market unfolded. This is really an amazing skills to have. By staging the stock 
    correctly, I am able to  identify the accummulation, advancing, distribution and declining
    stages without any difficulty. The best of all, stage analysis prevents me to Sell Short a 
    stock in Stage 2 Advancing Phase or Go Long in Stage 4 Declining Phase. This knowledge 
    has kept me out of trouble by knowing which stage to apply the correct  trading strategy.

    Beside apply my own propiertary indicators and trend channel to a stock chart, I make 
    use of stage analysis as a qualifying criteria to pick up which stock to trade out of the 
    hundreds. If I am planning for a "long trade", only stage 2 will be considered, if I am 
    planning for "short sell", only stage 4 will be considered.

    With this method, I have less chance to make mistake trading in the wrong direction and
    improve my odd of success.

     Below is a sample chart on how I stage a stock for trade consideration.