040111 - Are the Professionals ready to move Wilmar UP the trend?

If you have been following my posts on wilmar, you would have knew that I have been following this
stock closely since mid december. If you have missed any of the post, the links as below.

http://volume-price-spread-for-metastock.blogspot.com/2010/12/241210-wilmar-has-fallen-19-pecent-is.html

http://volume-price-spread-for-metastock.blogspot.com/2010/12/171210-is-wilmar-ready-to-stage.html

The same question again, Is Wilmar ready to go up north from today's massive sell down?
Look at the price bar today, the closed is not above 50% of its day range but towards the day's low.
Although there is a sign of  buying back at the end but this does not constitute a "buy order" yet.
If you think that it is cheaper now, think twice as it may get cheapest in weeks ahead.

Look at the wilmar chart today, if a trader has been trying to buy into the huge down day on each
occasion or averaging down.

Let see his portfolio performance.
                                     Date            Activity            Lot          Price
                                11/11/10           BUY                  1             $6.30
                                22/12/10           BUY                  1             $5.62
                                04/01/11           BUY                  1             $5.50
 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL                                                                       3              $17.42
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 AVERAGE/LOT                                                        1             $5.80
LOSS/LOT (TODAY CLOSED - AVERAGE)                       -$0.30

This loss will continue to amplify if the stock price continues to fall day after day. Paper loss is REAL loss, don't be childish to think it is not. It is your real money in negative returns. Worse of all, funds are
held up too long waiting for the stock to turn back up again and some never able to survive again with
suspension or delisting issue.

So what will be the tell-tale sign that the stock may have bottom inorder to have a good entry and enjoy the joy ride soon after purchase...Check my blogsite for more information.

What to look out for this week?

Basically we need to see that the today's low is not violated for the next few sessions, what I would like to
see for the next three sessions is to look out for test base bar or reduced selling pressure bar with very low volume, negative bar  which closes within the body of today's bar. In Japanese candlestick, it should be classified as bullish harami. This will provide me with the tell-tale sign that the sellers are no longer motivated to sell down further and I would expect higher price from then. Another positive indication will be a bottom reversal bar when price opens lower than today's low and closes near the day high with enormous volume and this climatic bar actually covers at least 50% of the today's bar.

Another interesting aspect of my system is that when the trend change occurs, the price bar will turn
Green and the Trend Cluster below volume bar will turn Green too. So when price bar and trend
cluster are positive with other positive indicators alert, then I will consider to take the trade without fear.

In my opinion, I feel that Wilmar is likely to head lower towards the mid-term support at $5.25. Failure to
hold up, next will be the lower channel line (bear logo) around $5.00 mark. Till then, I have to relook into
the chart again.

As I am planning to look for long trade, until now I have not found the right timing to ride the upwave and
is fortunate to be staying sideway all these while when the stock continues to plunge.


For more information on how I prepare a stock chart for trading each time?

Youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DhWgOq3BWHs

               http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nlNL8hCxq3E

               http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nHsj_xSAhI&feature=related

Blogsite: http://volume-price-spread-for-metastock.blogspot.com/

Trading is a team sport!

040111 - StraitsAsia Mid-Day Chart Follow-up from previous post.

Hi

If you missed my previous post on how I trade StraitsAsia, the techniques and why I took the trade?

Pleas refer to the earlier post below:

http://volume-price-spread-for-metastock.blogspot.com/2010/12/281210-i-decided-to-trade-straitsasia.html

04/01/11 - mid day update

Click on image to zoom

030111 - Bar by Bar Analysis on OSIM

Above chart showed the well defined support and resistance levels.

Above showed that each bar is marked with a point number for my reference

when trying to explain the rational behind the scene.

To start off here, this is my personal view and it's ok that readers may not agree

or have their own explanations. This is fine for everyone as there are thousands

of methods to decode the market as your  own experiences.

Below is my explanation and it is solely for education purpose only. Don't be too

serious with me, better get serious with your own financial business.

Refer to the chart for point 0 - A



Point (0)

Sellers dominated both of the sessions and at the end of the market day, buyers came

in and bought into the  selling spree. That was the reason for the tail on both of the bars.

This buying does not mean that the pros are ready to move up the stock price as they

will accummulate at different intervals until the timing is right to move price higher.

This can usually be spotted by my indicators such as Test Base, Reduced Selling

Pressure, Markup Bullish, Bottom Reversal, No Supply.

.Point (1)

The reason for this bar to be positive because the previous two sessions contained

buying activities at the end of the day.This positve up bar was without substantial

volume to support upside.

Point (2)

Due to the previous day upbar was without much supported volume to sustain
the upside. Expert indicator detected "Lack of Demand" from the professionals.
The recent base level hd to be retest again.

Point (3)

Notice that this was a down bar which closed lower than the previous bar
but the volume was significantly lesser which triggered my expert "Reduced

Selling Pressure" meant that there were selling but had cooled off alot.

Point (4)

Look at price opened at the previous day's low level and at the end of the

session to close at day high with low volume and triggered "Reduced Selling

Pressure". This was the definitely tell-tale sign that the base had been formed

and sellers were not motivated anymore and expect price to either more sideway

or higher from now.

Point (5)

With the previous day confirming the base, today, price was purposely marked

up to flush out any hidden sellers. Although it was a positive upbar but the

volume was still below average level. Some sellers appeared, this was witnessed

by the closed price which did not close at day's high and price was still able to

hold above 50% pivot level as the sellers were not so powerful.

Point (6)

The previous bar was now a clear signal that the sellers were weak and unable to

punch down the price.Buyers were motivated and moved price quickly up with

substantial volume to close near day's high. Now, the bulls took charge.

Point (7)

The gapped up in price attracted profit taking. Both buyers and sellers were

motivated to make their firm ground. The buyers were trying to support the

selling pressure.

Both sides of traders fought for their rights to control the  situation.

At the end, the sellers were able to create some injuries but werent life threatening.

Price still closed positive.

Point (8)

After a good fight, both sides of traders took a break to recover and consolidate position.

Point (9)

Today, the price opened lower then the last two days but was able to close at the

end of the day's high.This was clearly a sign that the sellers were badly wounded

and still in pain to whack a war again. But that wasn't meant that the buyers were

in upper hand, the buyers had won the battle but with below average activity level (volume)

which was a sign of concern on how long could this activity be supported.

Point (A)

Today, price closed positive and near 50% off its day high denoting that the
sellers are well and back again.

Conclusion:

In the near term, we could be experiencing sideway trading from this stock
until one side becomes clearly dominant.

Personal opinion, there are still good upside for Osim until 1st week of February.

The very important is don't be stubborn with own's view, stay vigilant

and let the market tells you what to do next. We can be very positive
on a stock but without a contingency plan of escape when market
suddenly turns south. We could be trapped with a home-run stock which
now becomes a liability.

When I trade a stock, I am more concerned about the risk that I would take
and watch that level closely. I may have a target projection but I am not
god to know if it will happen. Therefore, as long as each trading day that
the risk level to cut loss is not triggered, I will feel safe to survive another
day with price continues to move northward. When it's time comes to trigger
the risk level, exit graciously and be happy with what you have made.

Move onto another stock and repeat the transaction (buy, sell, cutloss) again.

Cheers

Why High Volume High Price Range May Make You Lose MONEY?

Hi Traders

Again and again, I have witnessed how professionals trapped the herd into buying while the professionals
are doing the opposite instead.

Refer on my last post on this issue.
http://volume-price-spread-for-metastock.blogspot.com/2010/10/sample-9-excessive-volume-upbar-may-not.html

Look at the above chart on Genting HK >>>

BEWARE of High Volume and High Price Range - this could be a trap that the

professionals setup for you to buy in while they are happily unloading their inventories to

you.

Check at those vertical dotted lines marked with "W", those were huge volume and
price day. If the professionals were so bullish to make the price range so wide and
huge volume, why were there be selling after the next day? Shouldnt the price continue to
go higher with good volume?

Have you been trapped in this kind of scenerio before when you watch a particular
stock starts to move wildly up and you decide to take a trade instead as the reward is
too good to resist and you feel like a champion after having a part in the game.

What happen the next day when the price starts to fall lower each day and you now
feel lousy.

You thought to yourself, every news that you can find are  saying good things about
this stock and you are sure that the stock price should continue to climbing and not
falling. You starts to notice that after the heavy transaction day, daily transacted volume
has been getting lower and lower and eventually below average level. How can it be?

You are trapped once again to believe that a new uptrend is on the way but turn out
to be a joke.

This is one of the classic traps that setup by the professionals to trap average traders
like you and me into believing that the stock is bullish while the professionals are thinking
bearish and want to unload as fast. This game is tough and cruel, it's not simple afterall....

By interpreting bar by bar, I am fortunate to decode what the hell is going on behind
the scene and trade along side with the professionals.

Expert Indicators such as "Trap Upmove", "Lack of Demand", "Supply coming in",

"Weakness coming in", "Top Reversal", "Professionals are distributing" are able to
warn me before hand and take appropiate action immdiately

281210 - I decided to trade Straitsasia when the momentum is RIGHT

Hi Traders

Referring to my earlier post on 24/12/10 where I explained the strategy that I would use to trade Straitsasia.

If you have missed the post, check it out below link:
http://volume-price-spread-for-metastock.blogspot.com/2010/12/241210-road-to-riches-depending-on-how.html

Straitsasia has been meandering within channel since May until today. The angle of the slope is above 45 degree which provides me with the clear indication that this stock has been a favorite by many
professionals. I had advised that I would be watching this stock for the next 1-2 weeks to make sure
that the base support is strong enough for the price to move up north again.

Today, the price displayed strength and I decided to take a speculative stake with calculated risk. None of my expert indicators has triggered positive buy signal yet. With past experiences, if price continues to move up for the next 2-3 days with average volume, I am sure that one of my indicators will trigger me to go long with this stock.

I hate this guts feeling to buy before my expert indicators say so, but sometimes it takes GUTS to stand up for what you believe and be responsible for the outcome. In this case, I chose to go with my GUTS feeling and please pray for me.

During the course of my trading years, I have developed numerous calculators such as Risk to Reward, Pivot Point and Fibonacci.

Below is one of the calculators that I use when planning a trade.

As an example, I use StraitsAsia for illustration.

Lot Size: 10lots (1 lot = 1000shares)

Buy Price: $2.51 (above pivot level and moving averages)

Cut Loss: $2.43  (below recent's support level)

Target: $2.75 (past known resistance level)

With the above information, I will be able to obtain an estimated rewards ratio for this trade.

If the ratio is less than 2, I would not consider to take trade.

Till then, cheers

Wishing you and me alot more profitable trades in the New Year 2011.

281210 - A week after I made 39 percents Returns, I am back today again.

Hi Traders

If you have been following my blog post, you would have noticed that I had sold off OSIM stock on 17th December after enjoying a hell of a good ride. In that post, I uploaded two charts on why I decided to sell and where were the possible support level after I sold off. If you missed the post, click on the link >>  http://volume-price-spread-for-metastock.blogspot.com/2010/12/171210-closing-trade-on-osim-after-good.html

In the post, on the weekly chart, I mentioned that I was watching two possible support levels, $1.30 - $1.45.

If price could maintain above either level, the up trend would be intact.

Look at the above chart, one day after I sold off on 17th Dec, OSIM traded to a day low's of $1.45 on 20th Dec. I was sitting on my trading desk watching how this level would be supported. If this level could not support the fall, the next possible support would be $1.30 level.

20th Dec day's low of $1.45 turned out to be a nice support level, price started to move sideway and along

the channel low. Expert indicators such as "Reduced Selling Pressure" were triggered in two occassions

indicating that the sellers could be taking break and nolonger eager to push price lower.

Indeed on the 27th, price started to turn positive with narrow spread. This was a good sign to show that price was nolonger going down.

23rd & 24th expert indicators "Reduced Selling Pressure" had clearly indentified that the price had bottom and 27th was the confirmation day.

With background strength for the past few days, OSIM was bought in by Smart Money therefore the price closed at day's high of $1.61 with substantial volume to support this buying spree. I decided to follow this

buying momentum and joined in the game while I know that most of the traders could be feared and recovering the shock when OSIM fell from $1.71 to $1.45 where profits could be totally wiped clean.

Amazing, my proprietary indicator triggered " Smart Long" after end of the day which is a Buy Signal.

Look at the Diamond Scanner below, OSIM was picked up from the 900+ stocks to be further analyze by

me for the tomorrow trading business. When both "Smart Long" & "Go Long" are shown on a particular

stock, it usually commands my attention to do further analysis on the underlying support and demand.

Just like the rest of the stocks with both expert indicators triggered, "Genting HK", "Cosco", "Indofood" etcs

these stocks are likely to display strength after the Diamond's appeared.

Therefore, you may want to check out these few stocks besides OSIM, you maybe hitting the jackpot again.

Till Then, Happy Profitable Trading and Happy New Year 2011.

241210 - The Road to Riches depending on how you draw the Trend Channel.

Hi Traders

A well drawn channel lines that are touched numerous times as price meandering between the top and bottom channel lines provide very  solid trading experience and rewarding treats if handle with surgeon's
precision.

As price moved forward with time, the expert indicators will automatically reveal the activitiy of the professionals. By exposing what the smart money is doing next, does provide abundant of trading
insights and opportunities to an average trader.

Armed with these expert trading indicators and scanners,  I would feel like sitting besides a
professional trader, watching him performing his daily trading plan and follow him closely
with every precise trade execution with calculated risk to minimise error.

Knowing what to expect next does provide better opportunity and probable outcome. But nothing is
far from the truth that trading is just a probability game. How to increase once's opportunity to win consistently with mimium losses is the dream of every trader.

I am lucky to be blessed with a logical mind that can put trading ideas into programming codes and successfully created a series of time tested scanners which assist  to pick, pull-back stock,
advancing stock, shorting stock and more. My stock analysis has really took a quantum leap after
completed the first version of  this propietary scanners and indicators early this year.

Back to the chart now, as we can see that the price has been meandering around the lower channel
line for past one week with "Reduced Selling Pressure" expert indicators.

This is to tell me that the selling has subsided for past one week and sellers are not pushing hard on
the price. Even though the price is well supported above the channel low, does not command a
Buy Order. We need more confirmation to make sure that the price is ready to move higher in
this so-called "Buy Zone"

I would like to see that the price bar turns "Green" and the trend cluster which is below the volume
bar turns "Green". With both trend indicators showing identical direction, will I consider that the
price trend has changed from down to up.

For now, it is best to stay patience and watch how the price bar will evolve for the next 1 - 2 weeks
before deciding a trade to the Long side.

Don't rush to lose money, the market is always ready for losers. Stay alert and patience, when
opportunities come, strike like a wolf  onto the sleeping herd of sheep.

• Eight years of trading experiences, I learned that being patience is a virtue many times.
• Trying to catch a run-away stock is like digging my own grave. Never be greedy to chase an
  explosive stock.
• Look to buy a stock which is on a healthy uptrend and has now returned to its support level to consolidate strength for the possible explosive upmove in weeks or months ahead.

Merry Christmas and have many Profitable Trading Ahead!